Jakarta, September 13, 2025
Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued a stark warning ahead of the coming wet season, forecasting prolonged heavy rains, multiple peaks of extreme weather, and a significant rise in flood risk across the archipelago.
The wet season, which officially spans from September 2025 to April 2026, is expected to bring two major peaks of rainfall. The first will strike Sumatra and Borneo between November and December, while the second—anticipated to be more intense—will hit Java, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua between January and February 2026.
Extreme Rainfall Expected
Meteorologists caution that this season’s rainfall will be longer and more intense than usual, with some areas projected to receive a month’s worth of rain in just a single day. Such extreme downpours pose a high risk of flash floods, overflowing rivers, and landslides in already vulnerable regions.
The urgency of BMKG’s forecast is underscored by recent events: deadly floods in Bali earlier this month left at least 18 people dead and hundreds displaced, signalling what could become a recurring crisis in the months ahead.
Regions on Alert
- Sumatra & Borneo: Early flooding risks as the first peak approaches.
- Java, Sulawesi, Maluku & Papua: Likely to face the heaviest floods in early 2026.
- Urban and Coastal Zones: Drainage failures, flash flooding, and infrastructure collapses are among the greatest concerns.
Preparing for Disaster
Authorities are urging local governments to strengthen flood defences, review emergency response plans, and ensure early warning systems are fully operational. Residents in flood-prone areas are advised to remain vigilant, monitor weather updates, and prepare evacuation strategies.
“Even regions outside traditional flood zones should not be complacent,” BMKG officials noted, emphasising the unpredictability of extreme rainfall.
Climate Context
This forecast follows an unusually short dry season earlier this year, driven by abnormal precipitation patterns. Climate experts warn that climate change is amplifying both the intensity and frequency of such extreme weather events, leaving Indonesia increasingly exposed to seasonal disasters.
The Bottom Line
With a longer wet season, heavier rainfall peaks, and deadly floods already taking place, Indonesia faces what could be its most challenging rainy season in years. The coming months will test both the country’s disaster preparedness and the resilience of its people.
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