South Sudan on the Brink of Renewed War as Political Tensions Escalate

March 9, 2025 – South Sudan teeters on the edge of renewed full-scale conflict after an opposition-linked militia stormed and captured a military base loyal to President Salva Kiir in Upper Nile state. The attack, carried out by a Nuer militia with ties to First Vice President Riek Machar, marks a dangerous escalation in the country’s fragile political landscape. Regional leaders are now being urged to intervene to prevent further hostilities that could push South Sudan back into war and exacerbate an already dire humanitarian crisis

Nasir Attack Sparks Political Crisis

The assault on March 4 saw opposition forces seize the South Sudanese army’s base in Nasir, a strategic town near the South Sudan-Ethiopia border. The opposition claims the move was retaliatory, citing earlier government attacks on Machar’s forces in Ulang County and other areas. Tensions in the capital, Juba, have since skyrocketed. President Kiir has responded with a crackdown, arresting several of Machar’s allies, further straining the tenuous unity government formed under the 2018 peace deal that ended South Sudan’s five-year civil war.

The likelihood of further clashes in Upper Nile is high, and fears are growing that the conflict could spill across borders, merging with the ongoing war in Sudan. Experts warn that such an escalation could trigger a prolonged proxy war in the region, as various factions align with external backers, including Sudan’s warring generals and foreign powers.

Economic Struggles and Foreign Entanglements

South Sudan’s fragile peace has been further destabilized by the ongoing civil war in Sudan, which has inflicted severe economic damage. The country relies heavily on oil exports, but its primary pipeline—running through Sudan to Port Sudan—was ruptured amid fighting in 2024. This has deprived Kiir’s government of two-thirds of its state revenues, exacerbating fiscal turmoil and weakening his grip on power.

As Kiir’s government struggles financially, his relationships with Sudan’s military leaders—General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti)—have become increasingly complex. South Sudan initially aligned more closely with Burhan, but as the economic crisis deepened,

Kiir began negotiating with Hemedti and his key backer, the United Arab Emirates, in a bid to restore oil exports. This shift has worsened relations between Juba and Burhan’s faction in Port Sudan, adding another layer of volatility to an already unstable region.

Proxy Wars and Ethnic Divisions

There are mounting suspicions that the Sudanese military may be reviving its historical strategy of exploiting South Sudan’s ethnic divisions, particularly between the Dinka (Kiir’s ethnic group) and the Nuer (Machar’s). Reports suggest that Burhan’s forces have been supplying arms to Nuer militias in Upper Nile, aiming to destabilize Kiir’s administration and weaken the RSF’s expanding influence in the region.

If these allegations are accurate, Burhan may be attempting to secure control over Sudan’s southern borderlands and pressuring Kiir to sever ties with the RSF.

Such maneuvers could rapidly escalate into a broader conflict, drawing in multiple factions and foreign actors. The battle for Malakal, the capital of Upper Nile state, is now seen as a potential flashpoint that could unleash widespread ethnic violence and destabilize South Sudan as a whole.

Political Infighting and Power Struggles

President Kiir faces significant challenges beyond the immediate security crisis. Internal political rifts within his administration have widened following the dismissal of key allies, including his long-serving intelligence chief and two vice presidents. Many in Juba speculate that these moves are part of a succession plan favoring Kiir’s financial advisor, Benjamin Bol Mel, who has played a key role in negotiations with the RSF and maintains close ties to the UAE.

Rumors of Kiir’s deteriorating health have fueled uncertainty, leading to increased infighting among political elites vying for power. With dwindling financial resources, Kiir has struggled to maintain his traditional system of patronage, further weakening his hold on the government and leaving South Sudan more vulnerable to political collapse.

A Looming Catastrophe

The collapse of the 2018 peace agreement and a return to full-scale war could be catastrophic for South Sudan. Renewed ethnic massacres, the rise of lawless militias, and an expanded proxy war in the region could create an ungovernable landscape. Furthermore, South Sudan’s instability could provide Sudanese factions with an opportunity to use its territory for their own military operations, further entrenching external conflicts within its borders.

Urgent Calls for Diplomatic Intervention

Efforts to de-escalate the crisis are underway, but the situation remains precarious. Kenyan President William Ruto recently engaged in discussions with both Kiir and Machar, urging restraint. Other regional leaders, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, are also being called upon to mediate. The United Nations has been urged to strengthen its peacekeeping presence and prepare to intervene should violence spiral out of control.

Without immediate and coordinated diplomatic intervention, South Sudan risks descending into another devastating war—one that could have severe consequences not only for its citizens but for the entire East African region. The coming days will be critical in determining whether South Sudan can avoid catastrophe or if it is once again doomed to the cycle of violence that has plagued its history.