JUBA, SOUTH SUDAN – Tensions in South Sudan are reaching a critical juncture as reports emerge that First Vice President Riek Machar has been placed under house arrest in Juba. The United States has issued a stark warning to President Salva Kiir, urging him to release Machar and prevent what many fear could spiral into another devastating conflict.
Machar, the leader of the opposition SPLM-IO and a key figure in the fragile power-sharing agreement, was reportedly detained by South Sudan’s defence minister and chief of national security. The arrest follows escalating clashes in Nasir, Upper Nile State, with the government accusing Machar of involvement in renewed militia activity. His party has denied these allegations, calling the move a blatant violation of the 2018 peace accord.
A Nation on the Edge
The timing of Machar’s detention has sent shockwaves through South Sudan’s already volatile political landscape. Just days before his arrest, reports surfaced of ethnic tensions rising once again, accompanied by a surge in hate speech and politically motivated violence. The United Nations has sounded the alarm, warning that South Sudan is at the precipice of another civil war, a conflict that could mirror the horrors of the 2013-2018 crisis that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
“The situation is deteriorating rapidly,” said Nicholas Haysom, head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). “Arbitrary detentions, increasing violence, and inflammatory rhetoric are all indicators of a potential return to full-scale war. If this course is not corrected, South Sudan will be engulfed in chaos once again.”
International Pressure Mounts
In Washington, the U.S. Bureau of African Affairs released a statement expressing deep concern over Machar’s arrest and calling on President Kiir to de-escalate tensions. “Political grievances cannot be solved through arrests and repression. South Sudan must honour its commitments under the peace agreement,” the statement read.
Analysts warn that if Machar remains in detention, it could shatter the already fragile coalition government. His supporters, many of whom still command military influence, may interpret the move as an outright declaration of political war.
A Looming Conflict?
Machar’s arrest is not an isolated incident. Over the past weeks, several high-ranking members of the SPLM-IO have reportedly gone missing or have been detained by security forces. The latest developments paint a grim picture—one where the shaky peace accord is fast crumbling under the weight of political manoeuvring and deep-seated ethnic divisions.
“The next few days are crucial,” said a regional security expert monitoring the crisis. “If Machar is not released soon, the opposition forces could mobilise, leading to renewed clashes. South Sudan’s history has shown us that political arrests often lead to military responses.”
As uncertainty looms, the people of South Sudan find themselves once again at the mercy of political leaders playing a high-stakes game. With mounting tensions, growing international scrutiny, and the ever-present threat of conflict, the nation stands on the edge of an abyss. Whether President Kiir chooses diplomacy or force will determine whether South Sudan plunges back into war or inches toward a fragile peace.
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